Social Weather Forecasts

February 26th, 2009

Yahoo! Japan Weather has got something interesting going on. I am quite intrigued. Have you ever been annoyed at the inaccuracy of the weather forecast? I know I have. I make cynical jokes about it all the time. Well, you can now press a button on your area’s forecast page to tell them what the actual conditions are. It’s sort of like voting for reporting on reality, I suppose. They call it “みんなで実況!今の天気” (Minna de Jikkyou! Ima no Tenki), which transliterates as “Everyone Real Conditions! Weather Now.” Ha ha. Let’s take a look. Here’s the splash page for the new interactivity.

Wow! So bright and fresh! So appealing! No login required! I’ve simply got to try it! Ok, that wasn’t my honest first reaction. My honest first reaction was more “whoa – what is all this about?” The promotional page shown here is basically meant to show people how easy they’ve made it to be Yahoo! Weather’s collective collaborative reality checkers. You just click the appropriate button, and the results update. You can use your PC or, as with most viral things in Japan, you can vote using your cell phone. Smart move. I don’t see why this hasn’t been done before. Considering how vastly complex weather systems are, and how much variation there is even in small areas, you’d think this would have been pitched years ago.

This is what the actual social weather options on the forecast page looked like. See the pre-visited little yellow and green leaf symbol on the upper right? That’s what takes you to the promotional page with instructions for use. (I thought that was cute – the yellow and green leaf sticker is what Japan uses to demarcate new drivers. Old drivers get yellow and orange. Don’t call it a chevron. It’s a darn leaf, or the colors make no sense.)

After you vote, the widget grays out. (I voted for cloudy -曇り- since that was my actual weather at the time.) The message it displayed along the bottom reads 「ありがとうございました。20時30分の集計反映されます。現在、集計結果が正しく表示されません。しばらくお待ちください。」This means “Thank you. The totals will be reflected at 8:30 PM. At present, the results are not displaying correctly. Please wait a few minutes.” You might have noticed that the widget had 12 votes before and after I voted. A few minutes later I refreshed the page and it had updated to 15 votes. (Hot diggity!) Not much action on the Imabari City forecast site just yet, I guess. I checked my host family in Tokyo’s location, and they only had 71 votes at about the same time. Still ramping up, it seems. Anyway, I thought I’d also translate the contents and captions for a few illustrations meant to further persuade you to use this new service. Here are the three provided examples that show how convenient the social weather report can be.

「今の天気」だと雨らしいから、傘を持っていこう!
According to “Weather Now,” it’s going to rain, so I’ll take an umbrella!

目的地の実際の天気がわかる!
「天気予報だと、雨が降るのかビミョウだなあ……」。そんなとき「今の天気」を見て目的地の天気を判断しよう!

Know the destination’s actual weather!
“According to the weather forecast…not particularly useful, huh?” In this situation, you could look at “Weather Now” and make an accurate judgment about what the destination’s weather is.

ケータイでみんなに教えてあげよう!
Tell everyone with your cell phone!

急な天気の変化を知らせあえる!
外出先での天気の変化を実況しよう! 例えばスキー場の天気がわかれば喜ぶ人がたくさんいるはず。

Discover and adapt to rapid changes in weather!
When you’ve gone out somewhere, follow the actual weather changes at your location! For example, many people would be thrilled to know about sudden changes when they’re out on the ski slopes.

「今の天気」見てくれたかな?
I wonder if they looked at “Weather Now?”

家族に自宅周辺の天気を教えられる!
「急に雨が降りだした」。そんなときはぜひ実際の天気を実況してみて。会社に行っているお父さんも助かるかも?

Tell your family what the weather around your neighborhood is like!
“A sudden downpour started.” At times like this, you should definitely try reporting the actual weather situation. You might even help Dad at the office.

Granted, this system is just asking to be gamed. That image is from my host family’s area in Tokyo after a refreshed the page. Clearly, it’s mostly cloudy with occasional sun, snow, and rain. Ha ha. We’ll see if they remove absurd weather choices seasonally or not. In the meantime, I am encouraged. I might actually know what the weather outside is likely to be for a while. And I can appreciate that. :-D

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Deas Customary Drivel, Unsolicited Commentary, 日本語

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  • When I need to know what weather we're *really* going to have, I skip the weather forecast entirely and just ask one of my friends in the community where I went to college, which happens to be about three and a half hours due west of here by car. Whatever they've just had, we'll be getting it about twenty hours later, give or take a couple of hours depending on wind speed. This is a significantly more reliable predictor of our weather than the forecasts you can get on the TV, radio, or internet. Of course, it only gives you one day's notice, so if you need to know about next week, you're fresh out.
  • True...but this weather voting system is supposed to provide super-accurate
    local weather in real time. It's kinda different. Forecasting / reporting...
  • Guest
    Very interesting. Thanks for sharing, Deas. I wonder how they will moderate it in future. I wish I could read Japanese so I could use these interesting mobile sites...
  • I thought people might find it interesting. I imagine that self-policing
    will be tried, and if responsible people outnumber fools who are just
    goofing off, it'll work. It's like voting comments up and down on other
    sites. I guess. Kinda sorta. And hey - you should use those sites as
    motivation for pressing on in your studies! You'll be venturing out there in
    no time if you keep at it.
  • My city gets 6 sunny, 6 rain, and one snow... Mind you, my city does stretch into the mountains quite a bit, so one of the voters might be living in a village at the top of a hill...

    Another thing, the ピンポイント天気 combo box is sorted in the wrong order for Kansai. It's Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto, Shiga, Nara, Wakayama, but the usual order is Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara and Wakayama.

    (PS: the "Goto comments" at the head doesn't work for me)
  • Ha ha ha. I guess there is enough variation to screw up local results legitimately, let alone screwing them up with pranks. I live on an island, and the weather for my city is often inaccurate for me - it's colder here due to wind, but it never snows. Makes for some weird clothing adjustments. Sigh.

    Interesting point about the ordering. And thanks for the heads-up about the comment flaw. I'll see if I can fix that. The regular #comments was replaced with #disqus_thread when I installed this commenting system. So far it's great - just lost emoticons, really. I just need to tweak the theme, I guess. Thanks for stopping by!
  • Fixed the "Go to Comments" button. Should work perfectly now. Give it a shot!
  • I think this is a good taste of the future, and could even catch on in America. Though it is a bit mendou, so I think our computers will have their own barromoters, etc. in the future and report automatically. If not that, then the gov. will place some units for this; we've already seen public webcams and pollen counters

    It kinda reminds me of the flash mob phenomenon in America; people getting connected through their cells and sharing info.
  • I had definitely not connected social weather to flash mobs yet. Ha ha.
    Interesting. I had thought about the sensors thing before. The difference in
    the system you're describing and the one we've got here is that the social
    weather forecasts are voluntary and involve massive amounts of purposeful
    human error. Sensor systems would be effected by the latter, but not the
    former. Still, interesting thought!
  • My question is, if you already know what the weather is where you are, what on earth would entice you to go through the trouble of finding your way to a website and reporting it? Just a general altruistic sense of benevolence, a deep-seated and unquenchable concern for your fellow human-beings? Call me a cynic, but I dunno if it's best to rely only on that for such a service..

    In the beginning I guess the novelty will draw participation, but after? I wonder. It'll be interesting, at least. If you find yourself using it regularly, Deas, you should do a follow-up post and let us know how it's going.
  • Yeah, that's pretty much what I was wondering towards the end of the post. If i wanted to warn my family, I imagine a direct email would occur to me, and social voting on the weather wouldn't. Hmmm. It all comes down to how much you trust your peers. In a totally anonymous system....not much. Ha ha. I'll do a follow-up after awhile. I'll just keep comparing my area here and my host family's area in Tokyo. It's about as stark a contrast as you'll get.
  • For aspiring weather forecasters, to alleviate some of the responsibility from themselves of making accurate forecasts, or to downsize their weather forecast team and outsource for free?

    I think it's a clever idea; very amusing. But I don't think you'll see much social weather forecasting outside of a country where people blog about udon and udon alone.
  • I'm not sure. Might be a gimmick. But if it is successful, then they've created an added value that competing online weather sites don't have - and it's something on which they expend nearly zero energy. That's not a bad deal! If it fails, it'll be because people simply aren't motivated to regularly report local weather, or because the system is gamed as a prank. I figure it'll break down along with the demographic layout of the country, and seasonally. I wrote about the split between country and urban populations already. By seasonally, I simply mean that people will be more likely to report weather accurately during times like 梅雨 or later in 台風 season. You know? Cause then it'd be great to get instant information.
  • Ha! That's awesome - it's no wonder Yahoo Japan > Yahoo everywhere else. They actually do some pretty innovative things :) and... just noticed you got a new design up! Congrats - looking spiffy!
  • Thanks, Koichi. I tried to kick it up a notch for the matsuri I just hosted,
    so I'd make a good first impression. Hope it worked! Ha ha. I also agree
    about Yahoo! Japan schooling all the other Yahoo! branches out there. I
    often wonder why they don't push the improvements out to their sister sites?
    I mean, go look at a local weather forecast anywhere in the states and it's
    super depressing by comparison.
  • I think the reason Yahoo Japan doesn't help other Yahoos is because they are
    a separate company (I think?) that split off from main Yahoo a little while
    back. There was talk of Yahoo Japan buying Yahoo, which I thought was kind
    of funny, but probably best that they didn't at that point anyways ;) Poor
    Yahoooo. They need hard gay to go visit the American headquarters now!
  • Oh, man, I remember watching the show where he visited Yahoo! Japan and he got up on the giant illuminated Y! sign. Ha ha ha. I seriously doubt it would work the same magic as a stunt in America, though.
  • Haha, indeed, he'd get put in jail so fast...
  • Wow, that's quite cool! I wish that they would start something like this in the USA (although I doubt they will, because CNN has something that allows you to report on real life and it's been scammed a bunch...).

    It seems that Japanese can be more mature than Americans. Anyway, cool blog and I've RSS'd you (that's a verb, right?)
  • Thanks for the comment and the encouragement! Ha ha. Did you see the part at the bottom about the system already being gamed? I imagine that it'll depend on a user's geographical location. For instance, I'm out in the countryside. We've got more old people than young people, and old people generally don't get a kick out of playing pranks like misrepresenting the weather. Ha ha. The cities on the other hand...
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